Keeping Zach Bogosian?

via nhl.com

When thinking of Zach Bogosian, try not to make the first image in your head that of him being picked 3rd overall in 2008, just after Steve Stamkos and Drew Doughty. Fortunately the first round in 2008 is littered with guys with seemingly unlimited potential but not a lot of payout so far, so Jets fans can’t be the only ones gnashing their teeth about what might have been.

With Bogo heading into his RFA year, it is offer sheet time. A quick review of the offer sheet procedure, thanks to NHL.com: Based on the dollars offered to a RFA, the team offering would have to give up compensation to the team they are signing him away from, and this compensation escalates based on the amount of salary added. I don’t see Bogo getting offered more than 4 million per so we can just concern ourselves with the first three tiers. Anything below 1,020,348 is no compensation, from 1,020,349 to 1,545,981 is a third rounder, from 1,545,982 to 3,091,963 is a second rounder and above that (for our sake) is a 1st and a 3rd.

With the first three tiers I think Winnipeg has to match, but if they are getting a 1st and a 3rd, that might warrant a closer look.

First, some pertinent Bogosian stats, courtesy of behindthenet.ca:

Bogo had the third most ice time on the team last year, with 17.57 minutes per 60. While he doesn’t play on the power play much, he is one of the more prevalent penalty killers on the team, logging 1.96 PK minutes per 60 (of course, they were one of the weaker penalty killing teams in the league, so that might not be a feather in his cap).

Bogo’s quality of teammates is a -3.115, putting him right in the middle of the pack amongst the 7 Thrasher defensemen who played more than 10 games last year.

But his real value comes from the type of minutes he logs: his QualComp was .24, highest on the team amongs d men who played more than 15 games, and while he didn’t have a very good Corsi number in terms of raw totals (-8.8, 5th among Thrashers D men) he had a very good one when considering the quality of competition (.556, 1st). Bogosian also doesn’t get protected at all, starting only 47.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone, 5th most among Thrasher D men.

Due to his ability to play against the best offensive players on the other team, and doing it while starting a lot of his shifts in his own zone, Bogosian looks a lot better than he does just looking at the traditional stats. I doubt Winnipeg goes overboard with an offer, but unless a team is willing to give up multiple first rounders for him, the Jets should hang on to Bogo.

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